Hearthstone Championship Tour’s (HCT) Spring Championship 2017 was played from 7th to 9th July in Shanghai, China. Sixteen players from four regional playoffs had qualified for this major tournament with a $250,000 prize pool.
In this post, I take a look at the decks and results, including class distribution, archetypes, archetype performance, and ban decisions.
Results
The event was played in a best-of-five Conquest format with one ban. It started with a double-elimination group stage followed by single-elimination playoffs.
The players were divided into four groups of four players with one player from each region in each group. The best two players from each group advanced to the single-elimination playoffs.
Group A:
Group B:
Group C:
Group D:
After the group stages, all four players from Europe remained in the tournament, joined by two players from each Americas and Asia-Pacific. All Chinese players were eliminated from the tournament.
The playoffs saw Europe’s domination continue with all Europeans winning their matches against other regions. It was only the Kolento vs Rdu intra-European match that kept one of Europe’s players from advancing.
The top four players of the tournament earned a spot in the World Championships: Hoej, Neirea, Kolento, and Ant will be headed for that tournament early next year alongside the top players from other seasonal Championships.
In the Grand Final, Hoej was able to defeat Kolento and was crowned the HCT Spring Champion!
Class distribution
The decklists were published before the tournament in Blizzard’s own preview article.
Classes from the most popular to the least popular:
- Druid: 13
- Rogue: 11
- Mage: 10
- Paladin: 10
- Warrior: 10
- Shaman: 9
- Priest: 1
- Hunter: 0
- Warlock: Zero. Zippo. Nada. Zilch.
Warlock remains dead as expected, and this time one Priest was in the competition and no one chose to bring Hunter.
Between the other six classes, the distribution was more even than ever before. Druid was the most popular class this time, but it did not reach the heights Paladin and Shaman reached at their peak.
Archetype distribution by class and performance
The archetype variety was slightly lower in this tournament than many others, but most classes continued to sport multiple archetypes.
Consolidation had mainly taken place in Shaman – Evolve Shaman taking eight of the nine spots – and in Rogue, where Quest Rogue was the only archetype players brought; no one brought Miracle Rogue.
In Mage, Secret Mage made a somewhat surprising comeback, considering its waning results after it originally took the ladder by storm. It was not able to reverse its recent performance trend, and turned out to be the worst archetype in the tournament with a 6-12 record (33% win rate).
In sharp contrast to Secret Mage, the other Mage archetypes were some of the best-performing archetypes in the entire tournament. Freeze Mage was the only undefeated archetype, but at 1-0 and getting banned twice, we hardly got to see it. The third Mage archetype, Gunther Mage, saw more play, and really rocked the field with an impressive 9-3 showing (75% win rate).
Other archetypes that succeeded in the tournament were Aggro Druid (6-1), Pirate Warrior (10-6), and Quest Rogue (14-11). Quest Rogue and Aggro Druid were by far the most banned archetypes at 12 and 10 bans respectively. The third-most banned archetype was Evolve Shaman at six bans. It had a bit more of a rough time, but was still able to squeeze out a positive record at 15-14.
In addition to Secret Mage, the archetypes that really struggled were Jade Druid (10-17) and Taunt Warrior (6-11). Midrange Paladin (9-10) was saved by Hoej alone, who piloted his version of the deck to an impressive 6-1 record (including one win in a mirror, so 5-1 excluding mirrors). Without Hoej, Midrange Paladin would have been the worst archetype of them all. No other player had such a profound effect on the performance of an entire archetype in the tournament.
Archetype performance excluding mirror matches:
Paladin
- 3 Control Paladin (4-6, banned 1 time)
- 3 Murloc Paladins (3-2, banned 3 times)
- 4 Midrange Paladins (9-10)
Warrior
- 5 Pirate Warriors (10-6, banned 4 times)
- 5 Taunt Warriors (6-11, banned 5 times)
Druid
- 6 Aggro Druids (6-1, banned 10 times)
- 7 Jade Druids (10-17, banned 5 times)
Mage
- 5 Gunther Mages (9-3, banned 5 times)
- 4 Secret Mages (6-12)
- 1 Freeze Mage (1-0, banned 2 times)
Rogue
- 11 Quest Rogues (14-11, banned 12 times)
Shaman
- 8 Evolve Shamans (15-14, banned 6 times)
- 1 Jade Shaman (banned 1 time)
Priest
- 1 Combo Priest (1-1)
Bans
Bans are always a hotly contested subject to analyze: while we have good sample sizes on matchup performances on the ladder (from Vicious Syndicate, for example), there are always arguments for and against almost any ban choices in tournaments. Either it is claimed that for absolute top players, the matchups do not work the same way as for other players, or it is pointed out that players have made specific tech choices that significantly alter the expected results.
While there is a grain of truth in both arguments – especially the tech choice argument – the data we have from ladder still forms the baseline for comparison. It is also quite accurate predictor of bans in high-level games, and any bans that differ from these expectations are interesting to examine in more detail.
Out of the 54 bans in the tournament, 38 were as expected based on general statistics. Many of the unexpected bans made little to no difference, even falling within the uncertainty inherent in win rates – if a different ban is supposedly 1% worse, that is statistically insignificant and could be just noise, maybe it is even the better ban if we had perfect information.
It is interesting to note how profound of an effect the opponent’s lineup has for ideal ban decisions. Neirea, for example, ended up banning four different decks during the tournament, and each of his bans was seemingly correct, including one ban based on the tech cards he had chosen for his decks. Some lineups have clear decks that they want to ban almost every time, but for many lineups, the correct ban depends heavily on the entire lineup of the opponent.
Some of the ban decisions I am unable to find support for include:
- Group A losers’ match, Xhope banning Taunt Warrior instead of Quest Rogue. Neirea was obviously going to ban Aggro Druid. Xhope can have either one unfavorable and two even matchups against Taunt Warrior or two unfavorable and one even matchup against Quest Rogue.
- Group A decider match, Muzzy banning Gunther Mage instead of Quest Rogue. Neirea should ban Midrange Paladin, but he did not in the first round because he had teched against it. If Neirea keeps his Jade Druid ban, Muzzy is not perfect, but he is fine, but if Neirea switches, Muzzy can have either one favorable and two even matchups against Gunther Mage or one unfavorable and two even against Quest Rogue.
- Group D winners’ match, Ant banning Gunther Mage instead of Evolve Shaman. Rdu was going to ban Evolve Shaman, leaving his Evolve Shaman with only favorable matchups, unlike his Gunther Mage, which was more even.
- Semi-final 2, Kolento banning Gunther Mage instead of Quest Rogue. Neirea’s Quest Rogue ban was obvious, and Kolento’s response seemed to be obvious too. Kolento chose two highly unfavorable and one favorable over favorable, even, and unfavorable matchups. He got that one favorable and it was key to him winning the match. Hidden brilliance?
- Grand Final, Hoej banning Taunt Warrior instead of Evolve Shaman, leaving him with no favorable matchups against Shaman as compared to one highly favorable matchup against Warrior. He went on to win against the Shaman deck twice anyway.
Bans by player (expected bans / all bans, decks banned):
Muzzy: 1/3, Gunther Mage (2), Aggro Druid (1)
Neirea: 5/5, Jade Druid (2), Aggro Druid (1), Midrange Paladin (1), Quest Rogue (1)
Xhope: 1/2, Evolve Shaman (1), Taunt Warrior (1)
CitizenNappa: 2/3, Taunt Warrior (1), Gunther Mage (1), Evolve Shaman (1)
Hoej: 4/6, Aggro Druid (4), Taunt Warrior (2)
Kranich: 1/3, Evolve Shaman (2), Aggro Druid (1)
Kuonet: 3/3, Quest Rogue (2), Jade Druid (1)
Dogggg: 2/2, Control Paladin (1), Aggro Druid (1)
Mage: 3/3, Jade Druid (2), Pirate Warrior (1)
Trunks: 2/3, Quest Rogue (3)
Kolento: 5/6, Quest Rogue (3), Freeze Mage (1), Aggro Druid (1), Gunther Mage (1)
DiegoDias: 2/2, Quest Rogue (2)
JasonZhou: 2/2, Aggro Druid (1), Quest Rogue (1)
Ant: 3/5, Jade Shaman (1), Gunther Mage (1), Pirate Warrior (1), Freeze Mage (1), Evolve Shaman (1)
Tredsred: 0/3, Pirate Warrior (2), Murloc Paladin (1)
Rdu: 2/3, Murloc Paladin (1), Evolve Shaman (1), Taunt Warrior (1)
Queueing order
The optimal queueing strategy in Conquest format is to pick your next deck randomly. However, it is typical for players to exhibit certain queueing patterns that can then potentially be taken advantage of by their opponents. The results have varied between tournaments: even in some high-level tournaments players have most of the time stayed with the same deck, whereas in others they have changed their deck slightly more than half of the time which would be the expected result from random picks (small sample sizes can skew the results).
Another aspect of queueing order is the deck that the player starts the match with. If the player always starts with the same deck, the opponent can take advantage of this and counter-queue a favorable matchup.
As expected at this level, players did not stick to a single pattern. When given the option between switching their deck or staying with the same one, players kept the same deck 25 times and switched 37 times.
Players also varied the deck they started with, and not only because of bans.
Queueing order habits by player (times stayed on same deck / opportunities to switch, starter deck):
Muzzy: 1/4, started with Midrange Paladin (2), Evolve Shaman (1)
Neirea: 2/6, started with Quest Rogue (2), Jade Druid (2), Gunther Mage (1)
Xhope: 0/3, started with Evolve Shaman (1), Combo Priest (1)
CitizenNappa: 3/5, started with Aggro Druid (1), Quest Rogue (1), Evolve Shaman (1)
Hoej: 3/3, started with Pirate Warrior (1), Midrange Paladin (4), Quest Rogue (1)
Kranich: 1/4, started with Secret Mage (2), Quest Rogue (1)
Kuonet: 1/3, started with Taunt Warrior (1), Jade Druid (1), Control Paladin (1)
Dogggg: 1/4, started with Murloc Paladin (1), Quest Rogue (1)
Mage: 2/5, started with Control Paladin (2), Evolve Shaman (1)
Trunks: 3/4, started with Midrange Paladin (1), Gunther Mage (2)
Kolento: 2/7, started with Taunt Warrior (2), Evolve Shaman (3), Jade Druid (1)
DiegoDias: 0/2, started with Jade Druid (1), Control Paladin (1)
JasonZhou: 4/4, started with Murloc Paladin (1), Jade Druid (1)
Ant: 4/5, started with Evolve Shaman (2), Secret Mage (3)
Tredsred: 1/4, started with Secret Mage (1), Murloc Paladin (1), Quest Rogue (1)
Rdu: 0/0, started with Evolve Shaman (2), Pirate Warrior (1)
How often does the favorite win?
Simply looking at general statistics, the player favored to win did so in 16 matches, whereas the underdog won 11 matches.
The surprisingly poor performance of Chinese players becomes even more apparent when viewed in this light. None of the Chinese players managed to win an unfavorable match, but overall they lost five favorable matches (discussing match-level here, not individual games). Perhaps this is coincidence, or perhaps the pressure of playing on home turf had an effect – home ground can be an advantage, but it can also be a disadvantage.
Looking at the top four players, all of them had to progress through some hard encounters, as people who reach the top of any tournament usually do.
Neirea and Ant had both the lineup and the plays to bring them to the semi-finals: both won three favorable matches and lost one unfavorable match up to that point. Hoej was all over the place, winning two favorable matches, losing a favorable match, but recovering to win an unfavorable quarter-final. As for Kolento, well, his path was a real mystery: he lost his only favorable match, but proceeded to win one even and two unfavorable matches on the way to the semi-finals.
Both semi-finals ended with a surprise winner as far as lineups are concerned. Ant and Neirea were heavily favored, but Hoej and Kolento managed to grab the wins. Hoej was the heavy favorite to win the finals, and for the first time in the tournament Kolento was unable to win an unfavorable match!
Kolento’s path truly defied all odds, and undoubtedly some of it will be attributed to luck: In the quarter-final against Rdu, for example, he topdecked his only out (Preparation as Quest Rogue) in the final game to take the match 3-2. He also won against Jade Druid twice with Taunt Warrior, a feat that is almost impossible to pull off without the Jade Druid getting some bad draws. On the other hand, he played extremely well throughout the tournament with those Taunt Warrior games being some of the best Hearthstone he has played. He has piloted Taunt Warrior to #1 legend on multiple regions, so perhaps his success with it is not that surprising.
The only unfavorable match he lost was also one of the only ones where he made a mistake: playing Maelstrom Portal before his minions on turn 4, getting Emerald Hive Queen that did not die for multiple turns, and being effectively locked out from flooding the board as Token Shaman, resulting in a lost game he did not recover from during the match.
Deck spotlights
The Championships are not really the place to look for radical new deck ideas. Players tend to be risk-averse when submitting their lineups for these top-end tournaments, especially so as they are played in Conquest format where you need to find those wins with each deck.
There were only a couple of off-meta decks in the tournament, and they were unable to find success – in the case of Jade Shaman, it could not even get a single game to show whether it is good or not.
Nonetheless, it is interesting to look at what decks were able to succeed at the very highest level.
Here are some of the top picks!
Hoej’s Midrange Paladin
Hoej was the lone truly successful champion of Midrange Paladin in the tournament with his teammate Kranich being the second-most successful with the exact same deck.
The deck itself is not new, Hoej brought the exact same list to Dreamhack Summer and did well with it there. Nonetheless, this list that includes Vinecleaver and Deathwing proved to be able to do something other Midrange Paladin lists in the tournament could not.
Deck code: AAECAZ8FCsIGzwb6Bq8H2a4CubICvL0C474CucECg8cCCtsD3AOnCNOqAtO8ArPBApvCAp3CArHCAojHAgA=
Kolento’s Taunt Warrior
It is pure, it is simple, it is the Taunt Warrior with most wins in the tournament. One way or another, Kolento just made it work. The other successful Taunt Warrior was from Kuonet, who had Dirty Rats and Harrison Jones in his version, but Kolento chose not to go for many tech cards: just stick to the game plan, complete the quest, and win.
Deck code: AAECAQcGkAP8BLIIubIC08MCoscCDEuRA9QEkQb7DIKtAtKuAv68ApvCAsbDAsrDAsnHAgA=
Neirea’s Gunther Mage
Gunther Mage performed very well for several players, there was no single build of it that outperformed the others. Neirea, Rdu, and Trunks all piloted their builds to a 2-0 record, with Neirea and Trunks running more traditional builds and Rdu opting to go for more of a hybrid build with some Freeze Mage elements.
Deck code: AAECAf0ECk1xigHFBOwHvwj7DKG3AtPFApbHAgrAAbsClQOrBJYFo7YC17YC6boCwcECmMQCAA==
Rdu’s Hybrid Gunther Mage
An alternative to the traditional build, Rdu borrowed some elements from Freeze Mage to come up with this one. The deck still includes Medivh, so it is slightly more reminiscent of Gunther Mage than some other hybrid builds.
Deck code: AAECAf0EBnHFBOwHvwihtwLpugIMigHAAbsClQOrBMsElgX7DKO2Ate2AsHBApjEAgA=
Rdu’s Aggro Druid
Aggro Druid performed solidly for everyone who brought it. Rdu’s version is crab-heavy, featuring one Hungry Crab and two Golakka Crawlers. Everyone had a slightly different take on the deck, and they all did well, so the core of the deck is definitely strong.
Deck code: AAECAZICBLsDtAXZB5G8Ag3+AfcD5gXlB8GrArazAs27AobBAp/CAq/CAuTCAuvCAsrDAgA=
Hoej’s Pirate Warrior
Hoej had decided that minions and weapons are the core of the deck: there are no Mortal Strikes, but there are two copies of Spellbreaker instead. There is also a Bittertide Hydra ready for assault. Taunts shall not stop Hoej from going face!
Deck code: AAECAQcEyAOvBJG8Aq/CAg0csAKRA/8DjgWoBdQF8gXuBucH7weCsAKIsAIA
Appendix 1: Decks and performance by player
Hoej:
- 6-1 Midrange Murloc Paladin (2xGrimscale Chum, Blessing of Kings, Vinecleaver, Deathwing)
- 5-4 Pirate Warrior (2xSpellbreaker, Bittertide Hydra)
- 4-2 Quest Rogue
- 1-0 Evolve Shaman (Barnes, 1xStonehill Defender)
Neirea:
- 2-0 Gunther Mage (Doomsayer, Acolyte of Pain, Counterspell, Polymorph)
- 3-4 Jade Druid (Hungry Crab, 1xFeral Rage, Gluttonous Ooze)
- 5-1 Quest Rogue
- 2-5 Taunt Warrior (2xDirty Rat, Harrison Jones)
Rdu:
- 2-0 Aggro Druid (Hungry Crab, 2xGolakka Crawler, 2xTar Creeper, Druid of the Claw)
- 2-0 Gunther Mage (2xDoomsayer, 2xFrost Nova, Volcanic Potion, 2xAcolyte of Pain, Medivh)
- 2-0 Pirate Warrior (Spellbreaker, Mortal Strike)
- 2-3 Evolve Shaman (Barnes, 1xStonehill Defender)
Kolento:
- 4-5 Jade Druid (Hungry Crab, 1xFeral Rage, Mind Control Tech)
- 1-3 Quest Rogue (Tar Creeper, 2xStonetusk Boar – no Swashburglars)
- 4-2 Taunt Warrior
- 5-3 Evolve Shaman
Mage:
- 2-3 N’Zoth Control Paladin (Loot Hoarder)
- 1-0 Freeze Mage (Eater of Secrets, Archmage Antonidas)
- 1-1 Quest Rogue
- 3-2 Evolve Shaman (1xMaelstrom Portal, 1xLightning Storm)
Tredsred:
- 1-0 Murloc Paladin (2xGrimscale Chum, 2xColdlight Seer, 2xBlessing of Kings, 2xSpikeridged Steed, The Curator)
- 1-1 Pirate Warrior (2xNaga Corsair, 2xBittertide Hydra, Captain Greenskin)
- 0-2 Quest Rogue
- 1-3 Secret Mage (2xCounterspell, 2xMirror Entity, Medivh, Yogg-Saron)
CitizenNappa:
- 1-0 Aggro Druid (2xTar Creeper, Genzo the Shark)
- 2-2 Pirate Warrior (2xGrimy Gadgeteer, Spellbreaker)
- 2-1 Quest Rogue
- 2-3 Evolve Shaman
Kranich:
- Aggro Druid (2xTar Creeper, Shellshifter, Swipe, Druid of the Claw, Crazed Alchemist)
- 2-3 Midrange Murloc Paladin (2xGrimscale Chum, Blessing of Kings, Vinecleaver, Deathwing)
- 2-2 Quest Rogue (Golakka Crawler, 2xStonetusk Boar – no Swashburglars)
- 2-3 Secret Mage (2xCounterspell, Ice Block, Mirror Entity, Burgly Bully, Archmage Antonidas)
Muzzy:
- 1-1 Gunther Mage (Counterspell, Archmage Antonidas, Medivh, Doomsayer, Acolyte of Pain)
- 2-0 Jade Druid (Wild Pyromancer, Yogg-Saron)
- 1-4 Midrange Murloc Paladin (2xGrimscale Chum, 2xBlessing of Kings, Crazed Alchemist, Onyxia)
- 2-2 Evolve Shaman (2xSea Giant, 1xDevolve, 1xBloodlust)
Kuonet:
- 2-2 Gunther Mage (Ice Barrier, Eater of Secrets, Gluttonous Ooze)
- 1-1 Control Paladin (2xStampeding Kodo, Gluttonous Ooze, Elise the Trailblazer, Lay on Hands)
- 2-1 Jade Druid (Doomsayer, Gluttonous Ooze)
- 2-0 Taunt Warrior (2xDirty Rat, Harrison Jones)
DiegoDias:
- 1-2 N’Zoth Control Paladin
- 1-1 Jade Druid (Hungry Crab, Golakka Crawler, Gluttonous Ooze, The Curator)
- Quest Rogue (2xHungry Crab, 2xTar Creeper)
- 0-3 Taunt Warrior (2xAcolyte of Pain, Harrison Jones)
Ant:
- 2-1 Aggro Druid (2xTar Creeper, Hungry Crab, Swipe, Druid of the Claw)
- 1-0 Pirate Warrior (Mortal Strike, Spellbreaker, Grimy Gadgeteer)
- 3-4 Secret Mage (Pyros, 2xCounterspell, Mirror Entity, Spellbender, Yogg-Saron)
- 3-3 Evolve Shaman
JasonZhou:
- 1-0 Murloc Paladin (2xGrimscale Chum, 2xColdlight Seer, Crazed Alchemist, 1xBlessing of Kings, The Curator)
- 0-6 Jade Druid (Gluttonous Ooze, Yogg-Saron)
- Quest Rogue (2xHungry Crab, 2xStonetusk Boarr – no Swashburglars)
- Jade Shaman (2xSpirit Echo, 1xLightning Storm, 2xVolcano, 1xJade Chieftain, Harrison Jones)
Xhope:
- 1-0 Aggro Druid (Hungry Crab, Golakka Crawler, 2xTar Creeper, Genzo the Shark, Swipe)
- 1-1 Combo Priest (Lightwarden, 2xInner Fire, 2xInjured Blademaster, 2xTar Creeper, Priest of the Feast, Kabal Songstealer)
- 0-3 Taunt Warrior (2xDirty Rat)
- 1-2 Evolve Shaman (1xDevolve, Sea Giant)
Dogggg:
- Aggro Druid (2xHungry Crab, Golakka Crawler, 2xTar Creeper, Swipe)
- 1-2 Murloc Paladin (2xGrimscale Chum, 2xColdlight Seer, 1xBlessing of Kings, The Curator, Primordial Drake)
- 1-2 Quest Rogue (2xHungry Crab, 2xStonetusk Boar – no Swashburglars)
- 0-2 Secret Mage (2xCounterspell, 2xIce Block, Gluttonous Ooze, Medivh)
Trunks:
- 2-0 Gunther Mage (Pyros, Counterspell, Gluttonous Ooze, Kabal Courier, Volcanic Potion, Polymorph)
- 1-3 Jade Druid (Gluttonous Ooze, Yogg-Saron)
- 1-3 Midrange Murloc Paladin (2xAldor Peacekeeper)
- 1-0 Quest Rogue (Hungry Crab, Golakka Crawler)
Appendix 2: HCT Spring Championship 2017 matches
Raw data on matches, lineups, and bans.
Group A, round 1: Muzzy vs Neirea
Expected win rates for each matchup:
| Decks | Gunther Mage | Jade Druid | Quest Rogue | Taunt Warrior |
| Gunther Mage | 0.5 | 0.38 | 0.51 | 0.51 |
| Jade Druid | 0.62 | 0.5 | 0.27 | 0.7 |
| Midrange Paladin | 0.57 | 0.63 | 0.51 | 0.68 |
| Evolve Shaman | 0.45 | 0.53 | 0.54 | 0.41 |
Match win rates with each ban combination:
| Decks | Gunther Mage | Jade Druid | Quest Rogue | Taunt Warrior |
| Gunther Mage | 56% | 55% | 61% | 53% |
| Jade Druid | 53% | 53% | 52% | 52% |
| Midrange Paladin | 47% | 50% | 51% | 46% |
| Evolve Shaman | 55% | 59% | 61% | 50% |
Expected bans: Muzzy was expected to ban Quest Rogue and Neirea was expected to ban Midrange Paladin.
Neirea has Hungry Crab and Gluttonous Ooze in his Jade Druid, which can improve its matchup against Paladin, so Jade Druid ban is another option Neirea can consider.
Actual bans: Muzzy banned Gunther Mage and Neirea banned Jade Druid.
Expected winner: Muzzy at 53%
Games:
Midrange Paladin loses to Quest Rogue
Midrange Paladin wins against Jade Druid
Gunther Mage wins against Taunt Warrior
Evolve Shaman wins against Taunt Warrior
Muzzy 3 – Neirea 1.
Group A, round 1: Xhope vs CitizenNappa
Expected win rates for each matchup:
| Decks | Aggro Druid | Pirate Warrior | Quest Rogue | Evolve Shaman |
| Aggro Druid | 0.5 | 0.61 | 0.67 | 0.45 |
| Combo Priest | 0.56 | 0.41 | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| Taunt Warrior | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.31 | 0.59 |
| Evolve Shaman | 0.55 | 0.62 | 0.54 | 0.5 |
Match win rates with each ban combination:
| Decks | Aggro Druid | Pirate Warrior | Quest Rogue | Evolve Shaman |
| Aggro Druid | 45% | 53% | 57% | 52% |
| Combo Priest | 56% | 57% | 61% | 60% |
| Taunt Warrior | 51% | 52% | 53% | 56% |
| Evolve Shaman | 46% | 52% | 55% | 53% |
Expected bans: Xhope was expected to ban Quest Rogue or Evolve Shaman and CitizenNappa was expected to ban Taunt Warrior, Evolve Shaman, or Aggro Druid.
For Xhope, Quest Rogue ban is the best in every other case except if CitizenNappa bans Taunt Warrior. Unfortunately, CitizenNappa banning Taunt Warrior is his best ban if Xhope bans Quest Rogue. Then Xhope should ban Evolve Shaman instead, in which case CitizenNappa should ban Aggro Druid. CitizenNappa can also ban Evolve Shaman, which is between the other two alternatives in both bans Xhope may make.
Actual bans: Xhope banned Evolve Shaman and CitizenNappa banned Taunt Warrior.
Expected winner: Xhope at 56%
Games:
Evolve Shaman loses to Aggro Druid
Aggro Druid wins against Quest Rogue
Combo Priest loses to Quest Rogue
Evolve Shaman loses to Pirate Warrior
Xhope 1 – CitizenNappa 3.
Group A, winners’ match: Muzzy vs CitizenNappa
Expected win rates for each matchup:
| Decks | Aggro Druid | Pirate Warrior | Quest Rogue | Evolve Shaman |
| Gunther Mage | 0.54 | 0.46 | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| Jade Druid | 0.38 | 0.48 | 0.27 | 0.47 |
| Midrange Paladin | 0.39 | 0.38 | 0.51 | 0.46 |
| Evolve Shaman | 0.55 | 0.62 | 0.54 | 0.5 |
Match win rates with each ban combination:
| Decks | Aggro Druid | Pirate Warrior | Quest Rogue | Evolve Shaman |
| Gunther Mage | 43% | 40% | 43% | 40% |
| Jade Druid | 50% | 51% | 48% | 49% |
| Midrange Paladin | 47% | 45% | 50% | 45% |
| Evolve Shaman | 41% | 40% | 42% | 37% |
Expected bans: Muzzy was expected to ban Quest Rogue and CitizenNappa was expected to ban Evolve Shaman.
Actual bans: Muzzy banned Aggro Druid and CitizenNappa banned Gunther Mage.
Expected winner: CitizenNappa at 57%
Games:
Midrange Paladin loses to Quest Rogue
Evolve Shaman wins against Evolve Shaman
Jade Druid wins against Evolve Shaman
Midrange Paladin loses to Evolve Shaman
Midrange Paladin loses to Pirate Warrior
Muzzy 2 – CitizenNappa 3.
Group A, losers’ match: Neirea vs Xhope
Expected win rates for each matchup:
| Decks | Aggro Druid | Combo Priest | Taunt Warrior | Evolve Shaman |
| Gunther Mage | 0.54 | 0.52 | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| Jade Druid | 0.38 | 0.57 | 0.7 | 0.47 |
| Quest Rogue | 0.33 | 0.63 | 0.69 | 0.46 |
| Taunt Warrior | 0.7 | 0.48 | 0.5 | 0.59 |
Match win rates with each ban combination:
| Decks | Aggro Druid | Combo Priest | Taunt Warrior | Evolve Shaman |
| Gunther Mage | 63% | 58% | 52% | 61% |
| Jade Druid | 59% | 57% | 56% | 58% |
| Quest Rogue | 58% | 59% | 56% | 58% |
| Taunt Warrior | 63% | 55% | 50% | 60% |
Expected bans: Neirea was expected to ban Aggro Druid and Xhope was expected to ban Quest Rogue.
Actual bans: Neirea banned Aggro Druid and Xhope banned Taunt Warrior.
Expected winner: Neirea at 63%
Games:
Jade Druid loses to Combo Priest
Gunther Mage wins against Taunt Warrior
Jade Druid loses to Evolve Shaman
Jade Druid wins against Taunt Warrior
Quest Rogue wins against Taunt Warrior
Neirea 3 – Xhope 2.
Group A, decider match: Muzzy vs Neirea
Expected win rates for each matchup:
| Decks | Gunther Mage | Jade Druid | Quest Rogue | Taunt Warrior |
| Gunther Mage | 0.5 | 0.38 | 0.51 | 0.51 |
| Jade Druid | 0.62 | 0.5 | 0.27 | 0.7 |
| Midrange Paladin | 0.57 | 0.63 | 0.51 | 0.68 |
| Evolve Shaman | 0.45 | 0.53 | 0.54 | 0.41 |
Match win rates with each ban combination:
| Decks | Gunther Mage | Jade Druid | Quest Rogue | Taunt Warrior |
| Gunther Mage | 56% | 55% | 61% | 53% |
| Jade Druid | 53% | 53% | 52% | 52% |
| Midrange Paladin | 47% | 50% | 51% | 46% |
| Evolve Shaman | 55% | 59% | 61% | 50% |
Expected bans: Muzzy was expected to ban Quest Rogue and Neirea was expected to ban Midrange Paladin.
Actual bans: Muzzy banned Gunther Mage and Neirea banned Midrange Paladin.
Expected winner: Neirea at 53%
Games:
Evolve Shaman loses to Jade Druid
Gunther Mage loses to Quest Rogue
Jade Druid wins against Taunt Warrior
Evolve Shaman loses to Taunt Warrior
Muzzy 1 – Neirea 3.
Group B, round 1: Hoej vs Kranich
Expected win rates for each matchup:
| Decks | Aggro Druid | Midrange Paladin | Quest Rogue | Secret Mage |
| Midrange Paladin | 0.39 | 0.5 | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| Pirate Warrior | 0.39 | 0.62 | 0.65 | 0.53 |
| Quest Rogue | 0.33 | 0.49 | 0.5 | 0.43 |
| Evolve Shaman | 0.55 | 0.54 | 0.54 | 0.55 |
Match win rates with each ban combination:
| Decks | Aggro Druid | Midrange Paladin | Quest Rogue | Secret Mage |
| Midrange Paladin | 57% | 49% | 48% | 53% |
| Pirate Warrior | 52% | 47% | 46% | 47% |
| Quest Rogue | 60% | 54% | 53% | 54% |
| Evolve Shaman | 55% | 46% | 45% | 49% |
Expected bans: Hoej was expected to ban Aggro Druid and Kranich was expected to ban Pirate Warrior.
Hoej has a dominant strategy to ban Aggro Druid, and Kranich is expected to answer this. Kranich’s other option is to ban Evolve Shaman, which is better if Hoej bans Midrange Paladin or Quest Rogue, but Hoej should have no reason to do so.
Actual bans: Hoej banned Aggro Druid and Kranich banned Evolve Shaman.
Expected winner: Hoej at 55%
Games:
Pirate Warrior wins against Secret Mage
Midrange Paladin loses to Quest Rogue
Midrange Paladin wins against Midrange Paladin
Quest Rogue wins against Secret Mage
Hoej 3 – Kranich 1.
Group B, round 1: Kuonet vs Dogggg
Expected win rates for each matchup:
| Decks | Aggro Druid | Murloc Paladin | Quest Rogue | Secret Mage |
| Gunther Mage | 0.54 | 0.44 | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| Control Paladin | 0.66 | 0.51 | 0.33 | 0.51 |
| Jade Druid | 0.38 | 0.34 | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| Taunt Warrior | 0.7 | 0.38 | 0.31 | 0.42 |
Match win rates with each ban combination:
| Decks | Aggro Druid | Murloc Paladin | Quest Rogue | Secret Mage |
| Gunther Mage | 30% | 41% | 46% | 39% |
| Control Paladin | 31% | 40% | 42% | 37% |
| Jade Druid | 37% | 53% | 55% | 51% |
| Taunt Warrior | 35% | 41% | 44% | 38% |
Expected bans: Kuonet was expected to ban Quest Rogue and Dogggg was expected to ban Control Paladin.
Actual bans: Kuonet banned Quest Rogue and Dogggg banned Control Paladin.
Expected winner: Dogggg at 58%
Games:
Taunt Warrior wins against Murloc Paladin
Jade Druid wins against Secret Mage
Gunther Mage wins against Murloc Paladin
Three unfavorable matchups, three wins!
Kuonet 3 – Dogggg 0.
Group B, winners’ match: Hoej vs Kuonet
Expected win rates for each matchup:
| Decks | Gunther Mage | Control Paladin | Jade Druid | Taunt Warrior |
| Midrange Paladin | 0.57 | 0.61 | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| Pirate Warrior | 0.54 | 0.45 | 0.52 | 0.5 |
| Quest Rogue | 0.49 | 0.67 | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| Evolve Shaman | 0.45 | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.41 |
Match win rates with each ban combination:
| Decks | Gunther Mage | Control Paladin | Jade Druid | Taunt Warrior |
| Midrange Paladin | 57% | 57% | 52% | 57% |
| Pirate Warrior | 66% | 63% | 60% | 63% |
| Quest Rogue | 55% | 56% | 52% | 55% |
| Evolve Shaman | 68% | 67% | 64% | 64% |
Expected bans: Hoej was expected to ban Control Paladin and Kuonet was expected to ban Quest Rogue.
Kuonet has a dominant strategy to ban Quest Rogue, so Hoej can respond with Control Paladin. Otherwise, Gunther Mage would be slightly better.
Actual bans: Hoej banned Taunt Warrior and Kuonet banned Quest Rogue.
Expected winner: Hoej at 55%
Games:
Midrange Paladin wins against Jade Druid
Pirate Warrior loses to Jade Druid
Pirate Warrior loses to Gunther Mage
Pirate Warrior loses to Control Paladin
Hoej 1 – Kuonet 3.
Group B, losers’ match: Kranich vs Dogggg
Expected win rates for each matchup:
| Decks | Aggro Druid | Murloc Paladin | Quest Rogue | Secret Mage |
| Aggro Druid | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.67 | 0.41 |
| Midrange Paladin | 0.39 | 0.38 | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| Quest Rogue | 0.33 | 0.43 | 0.5 | 0.43 |
| Secret Mage | 0.59 | 0.41 | 0.57 | 0.5 |
Match win rates with each ban combination:
| Decks | Aggro Druid | Murloc Paladin | Quest Rogue | Secret Mage |
| Aggro Druid | 46% | 47% | 40% | 42% |
| Midrange Paladin | 51% | 50% | 43% | 51% |
| Quest Rogue | 53% | 54% | 46% | 52% |
| Secret Mage | 50% | 46% | 40% | 46% |
Expected bans: Kranich was expected to ban Aggro Druid or Murloc Paladin and Dogggg was expected to ban Aggro Druid.
Actual bans: Kranich banned Aggro Druid and Dogggg banned Aggro Druid.
Expected winner: Dogggg at 54%
Games:
Secret Mage wins against Quest Rogue
Quest Rogue wins against Quest Rogue
Midrange Paladin loses to Murloc Paladin
Midrange Paladin loses to Quest Rogue
Midrange Paladin wins against Secret Mage
Kranich 3 – Dogggg 2.
Group B, decider match: Hoej vs Kranich
Expected win rates for each matchup:
| Decks | Aggro Druid | Midrange Paladin | Quest Rogue | Secret Mage |
| Midrange Paladin | 0.39 | 0.5 | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| Pirate Warrior | 0.39 | 0.62 | 0.65 | 0.53 |
| Quest Rogue | 0.33 | 0.49 | 0.5 | 0.43 |
| Evolve Shaman | 0.55 | 0.54 | 0.54 | 0.55 |
Match win rates with each ban combination:
| Decks | Aggro Druid | Midrange Paladin | Quest Rogue | Secret Mage |
| Midrange Paladin | 57% | 49% | 48% | 53% |
| Pirate Warrior | 52% | 47% | 46% | 47% |
| Quest Rogue | 60% | 54% | 53% | 54% |
| Evolve Shaman | 55% | 46% | 45% | 49% |
Expected bans: Hoej was expected to ban Aggro Druid and Kranich was expected to ban Pirate Warrior.
Hoej has a dominant strategy to ban Aggro Druid, and Kranich is expected to answer this. Kranich’s other option is to ban Evolve Shaman, which is better if Hoej bans Midrange Paladin or Quest Rogue, but Hoej should have no reason to do so. In their round 1 match, Hoej banned Aggro Druid and Kranich banned Evolve Shaman
Actual bans: Hoej banned Aggro Druid and Kranich banned Evolve Shaman.
Expected winner: Hoej at 55%
Games:
Midrange Paladin wins against Quest Rogue
Pirate Warrior wins against Secret Mage
Quest Rogue loses to Secret Mage
Quest Rogue loses to Midrange Paladin
Quest Rogue wins against Quest Rogue
Hoej 3 – Kranich 2.
Group C, round 1: Mage vs Trunks
Expected win rates for each matchup:
| Decks | Gunther Mage | Jade Druid | Midrange Paladin | Quest Rogue |
| Control Paladin | 0.48 | 0.33 | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| Freeze Mage | 0.39 | 0.29 | 0.5 | 0.57 |
| Quest Rogue | 0.49 | 0.73 | 0.49 | 0.5 |
| Evolve Shaman | 0.45 | 0.53 | 0.54 | 0.54 |
Match win rates with each ban combination:
| Decks | Gunther Mage | Jade Druid | Midrange Paladin | Quest Rogue |
| Control Paladin | 53% | 50% | 49% | 47% |
| Freeze Mage | 45% | 43% | 46% | 47% |
| Quest Rogue | 39% | 43% | 37% | 37% |
| Evolve Shaman | 40% | 42% | 40% | 40% |
Expected bans: Mage was expected to ban Jade Druid and Trunks was expected to ban Evolve Shaman.
For Mage, Gunther Mage is the best ban against Control Paladin ban, Quest Rogue against Freeze Mage ban, and Jade Druid against Quest Rogue ban or Evolve Shaman ban.
For Trunks, Quest Rogue is the best ban except if Mage bans Jade Druid, in which case the best ban is Evolve Shaman. Trunks should therefore ban Evolve Shaman, and Mage responds with Jade Druid ban.
Actual bans: Mage banned Jade Druid and Trunks banned Quest Rogue.
Expected winner: Trunks at 57%
Games:
Control Paladin wins against Midrange Paladin
Evolve Shaman loses to Quest Rogue
Evolve Shaman wins against Midrange Paladin
Freeze Mage wins against Midrange Paladin
Mage 3 – Trunks 1.
Group C, round 1: Kolento vs DiegoDias
Expected win rates for each matchup:
| Decks | Control Paladin | Jade Druid | Quest Rogue | Taunt Warrior |
| Jade Druid | 0.67 | 0.5 | 0.27 | 0.7 |
| Quest Rogue | 0.67 | 0.73 | 0.5 | 0.69 |
| Taunt Warrior | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.31 | 0.5 |
| Evolve Shaman | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.54 | 0.41 |
Match win rates with each ban combination:
| Decks | Control Paladin | Jade Druid | Quest Rogue | Taunt Warrior |
| Jade Druid | 47% | 51% | 53% | 48% |
| Quest Rogue | 41% | 48% | 50% | 42% |
| Taunt Warrior | 58% | 59% | 65% | 58% |
| Evolve Shaman | 50% | 59% | 63% | 49% |
Expected bans: Kolento was expected to ban Quest Rogue and DiegoDias was expected to ban Quest Rogue.
Actual bans: Kolento banned Quest Rogue and DiegoDias banned Quest Rogue.
Expected winner: It’s even!
Games:
Taunt Warrior loses to Jade Druid
Taunt Warrior loses to Control Paladin
Jade Druid wins against Taunt Warrior
Taunt Warrior wins against Taunt Warrior
Evolve Shaman wins against Taunt Warrior
Kolento 3 – DiegoDias 2.
Group C, winners’ match: Mage vs Kolento
Expected win rates for each matchup:
| Decks | Jade Druid | Quest Rogue | Taunt Warrior | Evolve Shaman |
| Control Paladin | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.5 | 0.53 |
| Freeze Mage | 0.29 | 0.57 | 0.42 | 0.63 |
| Quest Rogue | 0.73 | 0.5 | 0.69 | 0.46 |
| Evolve Shaman | 0.53 | 0.54 | 0.41 | 0.5 |
Match win rates with each ban combination:
| Decks | Jade Druid | Quest Rogue | Taunt Warrior | Evolve Shaman |
| Control Paladin | 54% | 52% | 55% | 52% |
| Freeze Mage | 49% | 52% | 48% | 49% |
| Quest Rogue | 49% | 44% | 45% | 38% |
| Evolve Shaman | 53% | 51% | 46% | 44% |
Expected bans: Mage was expected to ban Jade Druid and Kolento was expected to ban Quest Rogue or Freeze Mage.
Actual bans: Mage banned Jade Druid and Kolento banned Freeze Mage.
Expected winner: Kolento at 51%
Games:
Control Paladin loses to Taunt Warrior
Evolve Shaman wins against Quest Rogue
Quest Rogue loses to Evolve Shaman
Quest Rogue wins against Quest Rogue
Control Paladin wins against Quest Rogue
Mage 3 – Kolento 2.
Group C, losers’ match: Trunks vs DiegoDias
Expected win rates for each matchup:
| Decks | Control Paladin | Jade Druid | Quest Rogue | Taunt Warrior |
| Gunther Mage | 0.52 | 0.38 | 0.51 | 0.51 |
| Jade Druid | 0.67 | 0.5 | 0.27 | 0.7 |
| Midrange Paladin | 0.61 | 0.63 | 0.51 | 0.68 |
| Quest Rogue | 0.67 | 0.73 | 0.5 | 0.69 |
Match win rates with each ban combination:
| Decks | Control Paladin | Jade Druid | Quest Rogue | Taunt Warrior |
| Gunther Mage | 67% | 70% | 77% | 64% |
| Jade Druid | 62% | 64% | 66% | 61% |
| Midrange Paladin | 56% | 63% | 66% | 56% |
| Quest Rogue | 55% | 62% | 64% | 53% |
Expected bans: Trunks was expected to ban Quest Rogue and DiegoDias was expected to ban Quest Rogue.
Actual bans: Trunks banned Quest Rogue and DiegoDias banned Quest Rogue.
Expected winner: Trunks at 64%
Games:
Gunther Mage wins against Control Paladin
Jade Druid wins against Jade Druid
Midrange Paladin wins against Control Paladin
Trunks 3 – DiegoDias 0.
Group C, decider match: Kolento vs Trunks
Expected win rates for each matchup:
| Decks | Gunther Mage | Jade Druid | Midrange Paladin | Quest Rogue |
| Jade Druid | 0.62 | 0.5 | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| Quest Rogue | 0.49 | 0.73 | 0.49 | 0.5 |
| Taunt Warrior | 0.49 | 0.3 | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| Evolve Shaman | 0.45 | 0.53 | 0.54 | 0.54 |
Match win rates with each ban combination:
| Decks | Gunther Mage | Jade Druid | Midrange Paladin | Quest Rogue |
| Jade Druid | 41% | 41% | 45% | 45% |
| Quest Rogue | 31% | 38% | 40% | 42% |
| Taunt Warrior | 49% | 45% | 53% | 55% |
| Evolve Shaman | 33% | 38% | 43% | 45% |
Expected bans: Kolento was expected to ban Quest Rogue and Trunks was expected to ban Quest Rogue.
Actual bans: Kolento banned Quest Rogue and Trunks banned Quest Rogue.
Expected winner: Trunks at 58%
Games:
Evolve Shaman loses to Gunther Mage
Taunt Warrior wins against Jade Druid
Jade Druid wins against Jade Druid
Evolve Shaman wins against Jade Druid
Kolento 3 – Trunks 1.
Group D, round 1: JasonZhou vs Ant
Expected win rates for each matchup:
| Decks | Aggro Druid | Pirate Warrior | Secret Mage | Evolve Shaman |
| Murloc Paladin | 0.4 | 0.43 | 0.59 | 0.43 |
| Jade Druid | 0.38 | 0.48 | 0.42 | 0.47 |
| Quest Rogue | 0.33 | 0.35 | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| Jade Shaman | 0.63 | 0.61 | 0.56 | 0.63 |
Match win rates with each ban combination:
| Decks | Aggro Druid | Pirate Warrior | Secret Mage | Evolve Shaman |
| Murloc Paladin | 47% | 44% | 44% | 41% |
| Jade Druid | 48% | 48% | 42% | 44% |
| Quest Rogue | 51% | 49% | 47% | 49% |
| Jade Shaman | 41% | 38% | 34% | 36% |
Expected bans: JasonZhou was expected to ban Aggro Druid and Ant was expected to ban Jade Shaman.
Actual bans: JasonZhou banned Aggro Druid and Ant banned Jade Shaman.
Expected winner: Ant at 59%
Games:
Murloc Paladin wins against Evolve Shaman
Jade Druid loses to Evolve Shaman
Jade Druid loses to Secret Mage
Jade Druid loses to Pirate Warrior
JasonZhou 1 – Ant 3.
Group D, round 1: Tredsred vs Rdu
Expected win rates for each matchup:
| Decks | Aggro Druid | Gunther Mage | Pirate Warrior | Evolve Shaman |
| Murloc Paladin | 0.4 | 0.56 | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| Pirate Warrior | 0.39 | 0.54 | 0.5 | 0.38 |
| Quest Rogue | 0.33 | 0.49 | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| Secret Mage | 0.59 | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.45 |
Match win rates with each ban combination:
| Decks | Aggro Druid | Gunther Mage | Pirate Warrior | Evolve Shaman |
| Murloc Paladin | 43% | 37% | 42% | 43% |
| Pirate Warrior | 43% | 37% | 44% | 42% |
| Quest Rogue | 46% | 40% | 45% | 48% |
| Secret Mage | 43% | 33% | 40% | 40% |
Expected bans: Tredsred was expected to ban Aggro Druid and Rdu was expected to ban Secret Mage.
Rdu’s Gunther Mage is a hybrid build that includes Doomsayers and Frost Novas. However, even if we treat it as a Freeze Mage, the equilibrium bans with these lineups do not change.
Actual bans: Tredsred banned Pirate Warrior and Rdu banned Murloc Paladin.
Expected winner: Rdu at 58%
Games:
Secret Mage loses to Evolve Shaman
Quest Rogue loses to Aggro Druid
Pirate Warrior loses to Gunther Mage
Tredsred 0 – Rdu 3.
Group D, winners’ match: Ant vs Rdu
Expected win rates for each matchup:
| Decks | Aggro Druid | Gunther Mage | Pirate Warrior | Evolve Shaman |
| Aggro Druid | 0.5 | 0.47 | 0.61 | 0.45 |
| Pirate Warrior | 0.39 | 0.54 | 0.5 | 0.38 |
| Secret Mage | 0.59 | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.45 |
| Evolve Shaman | 0.55 | 0.45 | 0.62 | 0.5 |
Match win rates with each ban combination:
| Decks | Aggro Druid | Gunther Mage | Pirate Warrior | Evolve Shaman |
| Aggro Druid | 49% | 48% | 47% | 52% |
| Pirate Warrior | 51% | 55% | 50% | 56% |
| Secret Mage | 51% | 50% | 44% | 53% |
| Evolve Shaman | 48% | 47% | 45% | 52% |
Expected bans: Ant was expected to ban Evolve Shaman and Rdu was expected to ban Evolve Shaman.
Rdu’s Gunther Mage is a hybrid build that includes Doomsayers and Frost Novas. If we treat it as a Freeze Mage, the percentages change a bit, to a point where banning it is optimal in case Rdu bans Pirate Warrior or Secret Mage. Rdu should never have an incentive to ban them though, in which case Evolve Shaman mirror bans remain the equilibrium choice for both players.
Actual bans: Ant banned Gunther Mage and Rdu banned Evolve Shaman.
Expected winner: Rdu at 53%
Games:
Secret Mage loses to Evolve Shaman
Secret Mage loses to Pirate Warrior
Secret Mage loses to Aggro Druid
Ant 0 – Rdu 3.
Group D, losers’ match: JasonZhou vs Tredsred
Expected win rates for each matchup:
| Decks | Murloc Paladin | Pirate Warrior | Quest Rogue | Secret Mage |
| Murloc Paladin | 0.5 | 0.43 | 0.57 | 0.59 |
| Jade Druid | 0.34 | 0.48 | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| Quest Rogue | 0.43 | 0.35 | 0.5 | 0.43 |
| Jade Shaman | 0.54 | 0.61 | 0.28 | 0.56 |
Match win rates with each ban combination:
| Decks | Murloc Paladin | Pirate Warrior | Quest Rogue | Secret Mage |
| Murloc Paladin | 38% | 35% | 41% | 36% |
| Jade Druid | 46% | 48% | 48% | 44% |
| Quest Rogue | 44% | 40% | 48% | 40% |
| Jade Shaman | 40% | 39% | 39% | 36% |
Expected bans: JasonZhou was expected to ban Quest Rogue and Tredsred was expected to ban Jade Shaman.
For Tredsred, Murloc Paladin is the best ban if JasonZhou bans Murloc Paladin or Pirate Warrior, but JasonZhou has a dominant strategy to ban Quest Rogue and Tredsred is expected to respond to that.
Actual bans: JasonZhou banned Quest Rogue and Tredsred banned Murloc Paladin.
Expected winner: Tredsred at 59%
Games:
Jade Druid loses to Murloc Paladin
Jade Druid loses to Pirate Warrior
Jade Druid loses to Secret Mage
JasonZhou 0 – Tredsred 3.
Group D, decider match: Ant vs Tredsred
Expected win rates for each matchup:
| Decks | Murloc Paladin | Pirate Warrior | Quest Rogue | Secret Mage |
| Aggro Druid | 0.6 | 0.61 | 0.67 | 0.41 |
| Pirate Warrior | 0.57 | 0.5 | 0.65 | 0.53 |
| Secret Mage | 0.41 | 0.47 | 0.57 | 0.5 |
| Evolve Shaman | 0.57 | 0.62 | 0.54 | 0.55 |
Match win rates with each ban combination:
| Decks | Murloc Paladin | Pirate Warrior | Quest Rogue | Secret Mage |
| Aggro Druid | 59% | 58% | 54% | 58% |
| Pirate Warrior | 59% | 57% | 55% | 61% |
| Secret Mage | 63% | 63% | 60% | 67% |
| Evolve Shaman | 59% | 59% | 52% | 61% |
Expected bans: Ant was expected to ban Secret Mage and Tredsred was expected to ban Aggro Druid.
Actual bans: Ant banned Pirate Warrior and Tredsred banned Pirate Warrior.
Expected winner: Ant at 57%
Games:
Secret Mage wins against Quest Rogue
Evolve Shaman wins against Secret Mage
Aggro Druid wins against Secret Mage
Ant 3 – Tredsred 0.
Quarter-final 1: CitizenNappa vs Hoej
Expected win rates for each matchup:
| Decks | Midrange Paladin | Pirate Warrior | Quest Rogue | Evolve Shaman |
| Aggro Druid | 0.61 | 0.61 | 0.67 | 0.45 |
| Pirate Warrior | 0.62 | 0.5 | 0.65 | 0.38 |
| Quest Rogue | 0.49 | 0.35 | 0.5 | 0.46 |
| Evolve Shaman | 0.54 | 0.62 | 0.54 | 0.5 |
Match win rates with each ban combination:
| Decks | Midrange Paladin | Pirate Warrior | Quest Rogue | Evolve Shaman |
| Aggro Druid | 50% | 54% | 49% | 56% |
| Pirate Warrior | 53% | 55% | 52% | 57% |
| Quest Rogue | 60% | 61% | 58% | 67% |
| Evolve Shaman | 52% | 58% | 50% | 59% |
Expected bans: CitizenNappa was expected to ban Evolve Shaman and Hoej was expected to ban Aggro Druid.
Actual bans: CitizenNappa banned Evolve Shaman and Hoej banned Aggro Druid.
Expected winner: CitizenNappa at 56%
Games:
Evolve Shaman loses to Quest Rogue
Pirate Warrior loses to Midrange Paladin
Evolve Shaman wins against Pirate Warrior
Pirate Warrior loses to Pirate Warrior
CitizenNappa 1 – Hoej 3.
Quarter-final 2: Mage vs Ant
Expected win rates for each matchup:
| Decks | Aggro Druid | Pirate Warrior | Secret Mage | Evolve Shaman |
| Control Paladin | 0.66 | 0.55 | 0.51 | 0.53 |
| Freeze Mage | 0.69 | 0.45 | 0.44 | 0.63 |
| Quest Rogue | 0.33 | 0.35 | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| Evolve Shaman | 0.55 | 0.62 | 0.55 | 0.5 |
Match win rates with each ban combination:
| Decks | Aggro Druid | Pirate Warrior | Secret Mage | Evolve Shaman |
| Control Paladin | 48% | 50% | 49% | 46% |
| Freeze Mage | 49% | 49% | 49% | 48% |
| Quest Rogue | 56% | 62% | 64% | 62% |
| Evolve Shaman | 47% | 52% | 51% | 46% |
Expected bans: Mage was expected to ban Pirate Warrior and Ant was expected to ban Freeze Mage.
Actual bans: Mage banned Pirate Warrior and Ant banned Freeze Mage.
Expected winner: Ant at 51%
Games:
Evolve Shaman loses to Evolve Shaman
Control Paladin loses to Secret Mage
Evolve Shaman wins against Aggro Druid
Control Paladin loses to Aggro Druid
Mage 1 – Ant 3.
Quarter-final 3: Kuonet vs Neirea
Expected win rates for each matchup:
| Decks | Gunther Mage | Jade Druid | Quest Rogue | Taunt Warrior |
| Gunther Mage | 0.5 | 0.38 | 0.51 | 0.51 |
| Control Paladin | 0.48 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.5 |
| Jade Druid | 0.62 | 0.5 | 0.27 | 0.7 |
| Taunt Warrior | 0.49 | 0.3 | 0.31 | 0.5 |
Match win rates with each ban combination:
| Decks | Gunther Mage | Jade Druid | Quest Rogue | Taunt Warrior |
| Gunther Mage | 37% | 46% | 48% | 34% |
| Control Paladin | 41% | 50% | 50% | 38% |
| Jade Druid | 34% | 43% | 41% | 33% |
| Taunt Warrior | 42% | 50% | 50% | 39% |
Expected bans: Kuonet was expected to ban Jade Druid and Neirea was expected to ban Jade Druid.
For Kuonet, Jade Druid ban is only optimal if Neirea bans Jade Druid. Neirea, on the other hand, has a dominant strategy to ban Jade Druid, so Kuonet is expected to respond.
Actual bans: Kuonet banned Jade Druid and Neirea banned Jade Druid.
Expected winner: Neirea at 57%
Games:
Control Paladin loses to Gunther Mage
Gunther Mage loses to Quest Rogue
Taunt Warrior wins against Taunt Warrior
Gunther Mage loses to Taunt Warrior
Kuonet 1 – Neirea 3.
Quarter-final 4: Rdu vs Kolento
Expected win rates for each matchup:
| Decks | Jade Druid | Quest Rogue | Taunt Warrior | Evolve Shaman |
| Aggro Druid | 0.62 | 0.67 | 0.3 | 0.45 |
| Gunther Mage | 0.38 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| Pirate Warrior | 0.52 | 0.65 | 0.5 | 0.38 |
| Evolve Shaman | 0.53 | 0.54 | 0.41 | 0.5 |
Match win rates with each ban combination:
| Decks | Jade Druid | Quest Rogue | Taunt Warrior | Evolve Shaman |
| Aggro Druid | 51% | 45% | 52% | 51% |
| Gunther Mage | 51% | 45% | 59% | 57% |
| Pirate Warrior | 50% | 45% | 55% | 50% |
| Evolve Shaman | 52% | 44% | 55% | 54% |
Expected bans: Rdu was expected to ban Taunt Warrior and Kolento was expected to ban Aggro Druid.
Actual bans: Rdu banned Taunt Warrior and Kolento banned Aggro Druid.
Expected winner: Rdu at 52%
Games:
Pirate Warrior wins against Jade Druid
Gunther Mage wins against Jade Druid
Evolve Shaman loses to Evolve Shaman
Evolve Shaman loses to Jade Druid
Evolve Shaman loses to Quest Rogue
Rdu 2 – Kolento 3.
Semi-final 1: Hoej vs Ant
Expected win rates for each matchup:
| Decks | Aggro Druid | Pirate Warrior | Secret Mage | Evolve Shaman |
| Midrange Paladin | 0.39 | 0.38 | 0.55 | 0.46 |
| Pirate Warrior | 0.39 | 0.5 | 0.53 | 0.38 |
| Quest Rogue | 0.33 | 0.35 | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| Evolve Shaman | 0.55 | 0.62 | 0.55 | 0.5 |
Match win rates with each ban combination:
| Decks | Aggro Druid | Pirate Warrior | Secret Mage | Evolve Shaman |
| Midrange Paladin | 45% | 42% | 40% | 43% |
| Pirate Warrior | 45% | 44% | 39% | 41% |
| Quest Rogue | 49% | 46% | 42% | 49% |
| Evolve Shaman | 41% | 39% | 33% | 37% |
Expected bans: Hoej was expected to ban Aggro Druid and Ant was expected to ban Evolve Shaman.
Actual bans: Hoej banned Aggro Druid and Ant banned Evolve Shaman.
Expected winner: Ant at 59%
Games:
Midrange Paladin wins against Secret Mage
Pirate Warrior wins against Evolve Shaman
Quest Rogue wins against Evolve Shaman
Hoej 3 – Ant 0.
Semi-final 2: Neirea vs Kolento
Expected win rates for each matchup:
| Decks | Jade Druid | Quest Rogue | Taunt Warrior | Evolve Shaman |
| Gunther Mage | 0.38 | 0.51 | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| Jade Druid | 0.5 | 0.27 | 0.7 | 0.47 |
| Quest Rogue | 0.73 | 0.5 | 0.69 | 0.46 |
| Taunt Warrior | 0.3 | 0.31 | 0.5 | 0.59 |
Match win rates with each ban combination:
| Decks | Jade Druid | Quest Rogue | Taunt Warrior | Evolve Shaman |
| Gunther Mage | 53% | 59% | 42% | 50% |
| Jade Druid | 53% | 54% | 46% | 46% |
| Quest Rogue | 50% | 51% | 38% | 41% |
| Taunt Warrior | 55% | 60% | 47% | 56% |
Expected bans: Neirea was expected to ban Quest Rogue and Kolento was expected to ban Quest Rogue.
Actual bans: Neirea banned Quest Rogue and Kolento banned Gunther Mage.
Expected winner: Neirea at 59%
Games:
Quest Rogue loses to Evolve Shaman
Jade Druid loses to Taunt Warrior
Quest Rogue wins against Jade Druid
Jade Druid wins against Jade Druid
Taunt Warrior loses to Jade Druid
Neirea 2 – Kolento 3.
Grand final: Hoej vs Kolento
Expected win rates for each matchup:
| Decks | Jade Druid | Quest Rogue | Taunt Warrior | Evolve Shaman |
| Midrange Paladin | 0.63 | 0.51 | 0.68 | 0.46 |
| Pirate Warrior | 0.52 | 0.65 | 0.5 | 0.38 |
| Quest Rogue | 0.73 | 0.5 | 0.69 | 0.46 |
| Evolve Shaman | 0.53 | 0.54 | 0.41 | 0.5 |
Match win rates with each ban combination:
| Decks | Jade Druid | Quest Rogue | Taunt Warrior | Evolve Shaman |
| Midrange Paladin | 53% | 54% | 57% | 61% |
| Pirate Warrior | 56% | 62% | 59% | 64% |
| Quest Rogue | 53% | 52% | 55% | 59% |
| Evolve Shaman | 58% | 62% | 59% | 68% |
Expected bans: Hoej was expected to ban Evolve Shaman and Kolento was expected to ban Quest Rogue.
Actual bans: Hoej banned Taunt Warrior and Kolento banned Quest Rogue.
Expected winner: Hoej at 55%
Games:
Midrange Paladin wins against Evolve Shaman
Pirate Warrior wins against Jade Druid
Evolve Shaman wins against Evolve Shaman
Hoej 3 – Kolento 0.
Overall a very enjoyable explanation of the tournament. For me personally as a casual player I would prefer more in depth explanations of the individual decks you highlighted, and some way to make the tables of expected win-rates at the end more accessible. Thanks for writing this post, big fan of your vids.